Harry Stevens at The Washington Post recently published a simulation of how a disease like COVID-19 spreads. Also, a big thank to Kevin Simler the following text is originally posted by him, I read and I will tell you about that shortly bellow with my corrections.
In my experiments, the transmission rate of covid-19 is 0.25 (statistic came from the mathematical formula with looking at Georgia(country), France, Finland). It means if infected human touches 100 persons 25 of them are infected. It is the highest rate of the relationship between human and viruses
The transmission rate is partly a function of the disease itself, but also a function of the environment that the disease lives in. This includes both the physical environment as well as the social environment
Now, for any viral-growth process, it’s possible to find a transmission rate low enough to completely stop the spread. This is called the “critical threshold,”
But COVID-19 is so infectious, it’s hard to get below the critical transmission rate. We can only wash our hands so many times a day. Even wearing masks out in public won’t be enough enough to bring transmission down far enough.
- Buses, trains, and airports are places where people gather together in cramped quarters. When people stop using these modes of transport, they reduce the number of encounters they have with potentially infected people.
- Reducing travel is critical in concert with regional containment measures. If one region gets the outbreak under control, but neighbouring regions are still on fire, you have to protect the controlled region.
It is the all hated 3% fatality rate by in red colour bellow
The black curve may not look like much. But remember, each is a human life lost to the disease.
Why do hospitals capacity matter?
In reality, this matters a lot. We need to identify what the bottleneck is, and do our best to alleviate pressure there. There’s limited capacity somewhere in everywhere. When there are more patients than the system can handle, they can’t get the treatment they need. And as a result, they have significantly worse outcomes. The number of beds, medical equipment — specifically ventilators, personnel — are not enough if we allow the coronavirus to spread.
When there are more infections than hospital capacity, the fatality rate doubles
if we have more than that capacity can take, the death rate will be 6% at least and also, infected will be more and more until 80% of all of us.
Maybe we won’t lose as many as a worst-case scenario; maybe we won’t lose them in hospital hallways. But as long as the virus continues to spread — which it shows every sign of doing — there’s an unthinkable amount of suffering in our future.
Stop travelling. Stop going out. Stop visiting your parents and your friends. Stop eating at restaurants. Pause everything you possibly can. Cancel all.
LOCK IT ALL DOWN